History in Egypt, Part II

Photo from Huffington Post

It is now a matter of not if, but when Hosni Mubarak will step down as President of Egypt.  Everyone knows it, including the United States.  This is what he get's for three decades of economic neglect, torture (NSFW Video), suppressing democracy, and corruption.  Frankly, this says it all:

Photo from The Daily Dish

With this fact essentially established, the next obvious question is "What's next?"  We know there are numerous possibilities.  Some, including myself, worry that Muslim Brotherhood or another Islamic fundamentalist organization will try and establish a theocratic regime like in Iran.  

Others wonder if Mubarak's new, Vice President Omar Suleiman, will take the reign and essentially rule as Mubarak: Part II.  But given his well-known allegiance to Mubarak, this seems highly unlikely at this time:  

"Mubarak and Suleiman are the same person," said Emile Nakhleh, a former top Middle East analyst for the CIA. "They are not two different people in terms of ideology and reform." 

And for the sake of human rights, let's hope Suleiman is not a serious option.  As head of Egypt's intelligence agency, he helped oversee the torture of suspected Al Qaeda to help the Bush Administration justify the invasion of Iraq.  He also assisted with the the CIA's international "interrogation" policy known as rendition.

Another option that has been mentioned is a surprising leader of the opposition movement: Mohamed ElBaradei.  He is certainly a capable and distinguished enough of an individual, and may end up being the best option there is.  But the fact that he has spent most of his career outside of Egypt may not settle well with some of his countrymen who consider this a nationalist Egyptian uprising. 

Whatever happens, there is a lot at steak in who takes over in Egypt.  Not just for Egypt itself, but for the Middle East as a whole.  The one major upside to the Mubarak regime has been the continued peace between Egypt and Israel.  At this time, Israel is very nervous about what is going to happen, and rightly so:

If Hosni Mubarak’s regime is replaced by a new anti-Israel, anti-western government, the Jewish state’s only remaining strategic allies in the Middle East will be the Palestinian Authority and Jordan.

That’s enough to give any Israeli government nightmares.

Many progressives in America, including myself, have always felt the United States should do a better job of putting pressure on Israel to treat the Palestinians in a more humane manner.  At the same time, the United States should continue to look out for the interests and security of Israel so they are not an open target for hostile enemies in the region.  Finally, the United States needs to take a a proactive and positive relationship with the Egyptian opposition for the sake of peace and stability in the region.  Senator John Kerry (D-MA) has it spot on in a New York Times Op-Ed piece:

Given the events of the past week, some are criticizing America’s past tolerance of the Egyptian regime. It is true that our public rhetoric did not always match our private concerns. But there also was a pragmatic understanding that our relationship benefited American foreign policy and promoted peace in the region. And make no mistake, a productive relationship with Egypt remains crucial for both us and the Middle East. 

To that end, the United States must accompany our rhetoric with real assistance to the Egyptian people. For too long, financing Egypt’s military has dominated our alliance. The proof was seen over the weekend: tear gas canisters marked “Made in America” fired at protesters, United States-supplied F-16 jet fighters streaking over central Cairo. Congress and the Obama administration need to consider providing civilian assistance that would generate jobs and improve social conditions in Egypt, as well as guarantee that American military assistance is accomplishing its goals — just as we are trying to do with Pakistan through a five-year nonmilitary assistance package.

Allow me to recommend three other good sources of information on the situation in Egypt:

• In his newest column in Slate, Christopher Hitchens gives his take.  As only Hitch can do, he writes eloquently about the plight of the people's desire for change in Egypt.
• Sharif Abdel Kouddous continues his outstanding coverage of Egypt on yesterday's Democracy Now.  As I said before, follow him on Twitter if you are on there and care at all about this situation (especially if you are interested in hearing an Egyptian perspective).
• Finally, I would like to show the video I showed to my Social Studies class yesterday to inform them on the situation in Egypt.  While my students generally have little or no interest in international affairs, they were stunned  and intrigued at this footage.  After the video, I heard one of my students refer to Mubarak with not so nice language.  While I had to jump on him for use of profanity in my classroom, I enjoyed the passion with which he felt (that is partially why I became a teacher).  If you teach a Social Studies class, and have the technology in your room, I highly recommend playing this for your students, and having a classroom discussion afterwords:

UPDATE NOTE: As I was completing this post, Mubarak has announced he will not run for election. But we already knew this would happen. Let's see what happens next.

History in Egypt

Photo from TotallyCoolPix

It is an absolutely amazing thing to be sitting here and watching history unfold before our very eyes in Egypt. I have been on Twitter and Huffington Post all day following live updates of the events.  Some facts and thoughts:

• I don't watch cable news anymore because I don't get cable, but from the sounds of what others are saying, they are doing a pretty poor job of covering the unfolding events.  No surprise there.  I have always thought of cable news as the drunken, idiot uncle of journalism.
• If you are on Twitter, and you want to see really amazing updates of unfolding events, you should follow Democracy Now correspondent Sharif Kouddous.  I will look forward to what he has to say on Monday's broadcast of DN. 
• It is interesting to realize the type of relationship the United States and the Mubarak regime has had over these years.  While we periodically will criticize their government for not making enough democratic reforms, the truth is, no one has been a greater friend to United States in that part of the world (outside of Israel and possibly Saudi Arabia).  They help us "interrogate" suspected terrorists; we give them money, help them shut down the internet, and provide resources to combat protesters in the streets (scroll down to picture number 80 to see where their gas canisters are made).  I am happy with the peaceful relationship Egypt has had with Israel since Sadat, but that is the extent of my respect of Egyptian leadership.  I wonder if most Americans realize that one of the reasons Egypt is revolting against Mubarak is because of his relationship with us.  
• Then there is Vice President Joe Biden.  For the most part, I have always been a fan of his, and especially his take on foreign affairs.  I know that many people in Washington are privately sad Mubarak might be driven out of office, but I can't believe Biden has the balls to say this in an interview:

"Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he's been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with - with Israel. ... I would not refer to him as a dictator."

          Even for Joe Biden, that takes some cojones. 

• Finally, two things must be remembered.  One, a lot of people are being injured and killed in these protests over the past few days.  As exciting as these revolutionary events are to watch unfold, we must be mindful of the death and destruction that has taken place, and continues to take place.  My second concern is this: the people of Egypt are rallying to get rid of a dictator, and it does show that the United States does not need to intervene to bring change about in the Arab world.  But if Mubarak steps down, what will take his place?  Is it going to be another Mubarak-like dictator?  An Islamic fundamentalist regime?  A secular government that respects democracy and freedom of speech?  Or something entirely different?  All I can do is continue what I, and the rest of the world are doing: sit back, watch, and wait.