History in Egypt, Part II

Photo from Huffington Post

It is now a matter of not if, but when Hosni Mubarak will step down as President of Egypt.  Everyone knows it, including the United States.  This is what he get's for three decades of economic neglect, torture (NSFW Video), suppressing democracy, and corruption.  Frankly, this says it all:

Photo from The Daily Dish

With this fact essentially established, the next obvious question is "What's next?"  We know there are numerous possibilities.  Some, including myself, worry that Muslim Brotherhood or another Islamic fundamentalist organization will try and establish a theocratic regime like in Iran.  

Others wonder if Mubarak's new, Vice President Omar Suleiman, will take the reign and essentially rule as Mubarak: Part II.  But given his well-known allegiance to Mubarak, this seems highly unlikely at this time:  

"Mubarak and Suleiman are the same person," said Emile Nakhleh, a former top Middle East analyst for the CIA. "They are not two different people in terms of ideology and reform." 

And for the sake of human rights, let's hope Suleiman is not a serious option.  As head of Egypt's intelligence agency, he helped oversee the torture of suspected Al Qaeda to help the Bush Administration justify the invasion of Iraq.  He also assisted with the the CIA's international "interrogation" policy known as rendition.

Another option that has been mentioned is a surprising leader of the opposition movement: Mohamed ElBaradei.  He is certainly a capable and distinguished enough of an individual, and may end up being the best option there is.  But the fact that he has spent most of his career outside of Egypt may not settle well with some of his countrymen who consider this a nationalist Egyptian uprising. 

Whatever happens, there is a lot at steak in who takes over in Egypt.  Not just for Egypt itself, but for the Middle East as a whole.  The one major upside to the Mubarak regime has been the continued peace between Egypt and Israel.  At this time, Israel is very nervous about what is going to happen, and rightly so:

If Hosni Mubarak’s regime is replaced by a new anti-Israel, anti-western government, the Jewish state’s only remaining strategic allies in the Middle East will be the Palestinian Authority and Jordan.

That’s enough to give any Israeli government nightmares.

Many progressives in America, including myself, have always felt the United States should do a better job of putting pressure on Israel to treat the Palestinians in a more humane manner.  At the same time, the United States should continue to look out for the interests and security of Israel so they are not an open target for hostile enemies in the region.  Finally, the United States needs to take a a proactive and positive relationship with the Egyptian opposition for the sake of peace and stability in the region.  Senator John Kerry (D-MA) has it spot on in a New York Times Op-Ed piece:

Given the events of the past week, some are criticizing America’s past tolerance of the Egyptian regime. It is true that our public rhetoric did not always match our private concerns. But there also was a pragmatic understanding that our relationship benefited American foreign policy and promoted peace in the region. And make no mistake, a productive relationship with Egypt remains crucial for both us and the Middle East. 

To that end, the United States must accompany our rhetoric with real assistance to the Egyptian people. For too long, financing Egypt’s military has dominated our alliance. The proof was seen over the weekend: tear gas canisters marked “Made in America” fired at protesters, United States-supplied F-16 jet fighters streaking over central Cairo. Congress and the Obama administration need to consider providing civilian assistance that would generate jobs and improve social conditions in Egypt, as well as guarantee that American military assistance is accomplishing its goals — just as we are trying to do with Pakistan through a five-year nonmilitary assistance package.

Allow me to recommend three other good sources of information on the situation in Egypt:

• In his newest column in Slate, Christopher Hitchens gives his take.  As only Hitch can do, he writes eloquently about the plight of the people's desire for change in Egypt.
• Sharif Abdel Kouddous continues his outstanding coverage of Egypt on yesterday's Democracy Now.  As I said before, follow him on Twitter if you are on there and care at all about this situation (especially if you are interested in hearing an Egyptian perspective).
• Finally, I would like to show the video I showed to my Social Studies class yesterday to inform them on the situation in Egypt.  While my students generally have little or no interest in international affairs, they were stunned  and intrigued at this footage.  After the video, I heard one of my students refer to Mubarak with not so nice language.  While I had to jump on him for use of profanity in my classroom, I enjoyed the passion with which he felt (that is partially why I became a teacher).  If you teach a Social Studies class, and have the technology in your room, I highly recommend playing this for your students, and having a classroom discussion afterwords:

UPDATE NOTE: As I was completing this post, Mubarak has announced he will not run for election. But we already knew this would happen. Let's see what happens next.